ABIO10 PGTW 071000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/071000Z-071800ZAPR2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070752ZAPR2021//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070151ZAPR2021//
NARR/REFS A AND A ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 07APR21 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVEN) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 16.0S 105.7E, APPROXIMATELY 608 NM NORTHWEST OF 
LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 
KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 070900) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AT 07APR21 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 13.3S 118.0E, APPROXIMATELY 584 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF 
LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER 
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED 
AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS31 PGTW 070300) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.7S 
91.4E, APPROXIMATELY 355 NM NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA. 
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL ENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A PARTIAL 
070706Z AMSR-2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE PASS REVEAL DISORGANIZED BANDING 
WITH CYCLING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND EAST OF A BROAD 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). INVEST 91S IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT 
FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM 
(29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY STRONG (20-25KTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 
INVEST 91S WILL CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS 
AS IT TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST UNDER AN AREA OF LOW (10-15KTS) VWS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO 
LOW.//
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