WTXS31 PGTW 070300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 011// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 011 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 070000Z --- NEAR 13.3S 118.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S 118.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 14.4S 116.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 15.6S 114.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 16.9S 113.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 18.0S 111.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 20.1S 110.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 23.7S 110.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 23 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 29.9S 118.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 070300Z POSITION NEAR 13.6S 117.5E. 07APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (SEROJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 584 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) POSITIONED UNDER THE EASTERN EDGE OF FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. A 062304Z SSMIS 91GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE WESTERN QUADRANT DUE TO EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS, HEDGED ABOVE THE PGTW/APRF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 2.5 (35 KNOTS), BASED ON A 07/0100Z ADT ESTIMATE OF 2.8 (41 KNOTS) AND A PARTIAL 062305Z SMAP IMAGE SHOWING 48 KNOTS OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. TC 26S IS FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA THROUGH TAU 72 THEN RECURVE POLEWARD THROUGH TAU 120 AS A DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH DIGS OVER SOUTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT LENDING MODERATE CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 26S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 24 DUE TO PERSISTENT MODERATE VWS BUT IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AFTER TAU 48 AS VWS RELAXES AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW IMPROVES. THE SYSTEM SHOULD PEAK AT 110 KNOTS BY TAU 72 WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING ANTICIPATED BY TAU 120 DUE TO INCREASING VWS, COOLER SST (27-28C) AND INTERACTION WITH LAND. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z AND 080300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN