WTXS31 PGTW 062100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 010// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 010 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 061800Z --- NEAR 12.3S 119.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S 119.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 13.5S 117.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 14.5S 115.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 15.9S 114.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 17.3S 112.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 19.6S 110.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 22.8S 109.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 27.9S 114.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 062100Z POSITION NEAR 12.6S 118.6E. 06APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (SEROJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 662 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) POSITIONED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. A 061712Z AMSR2 89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE WESTERN QUADRANT DUE TO EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 3.0 (45 KNOTS), HEDGED ABOVE A 06/1830Z ADT ESTIMATE OF 2.6 (37 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. TC 26S IS FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA THROUGH TAU 72 THEN TURN POLEWARD THROUGH TAU 120 AS A DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES AUSTRALIA. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 210NM AT TAU 72 LENDING MODERATE CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 26S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 36 DUE TO PERSISTENT MODERATE VWS BUT IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AFTER TAU 48 AS VWS RELAXES AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW IMPROVES. THE SYSTEM SHOULD PEAK AT 105 KNOTS BY TAU 96 WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING ANTICIPATED BY TAU 120 DUE TO INCREASING VWS, COOLER SST (27-28C) AND INTERACTION WITH LAND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z, 070900Z, 071500Z AND 072100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN