WTXS31 PGTW 061500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 009 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 061200Z --- NEAR 11.9S 119.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.9S 119.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 12.3S 118.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 13.2S 116.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 14.4S 115.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 15.8S 113.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 18.7S 111.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 21.9S 110.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 26.3S 111.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 061500Z POSITION NEAR 12.0S 119.0E. 06APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 397 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS BEING SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED BY EASTERLY SHEAR, WITH WEAK FRAGMENTED CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST, EXPOSING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC AND AN EXTRAPOLATION OF A WEAK LOW EMISSIVITY REGION EVIDENT IN A 061014Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, SET AT 50 KNOTS BASED ON THE HIGHER END OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KTS) TO T3.5 (55 KTS). THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, BUT IS STILL TRAVELING IN SOUTHWESTWARD, ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL WITH MODERATE (15-20 KTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (30C) SSTS. TC 26S WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 72, THE ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AND TURN POLEWARD, THEN SOUTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH BY TAU 120. TC 27S WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AROUND TAU 48, BUT TC 26S BEING THE DOMINATE SYSTEM, WILL EXPERIENCE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT IN OVERALL TRACK MOTION FOR THE PASSAGE OF TC 27S. THE IMPACT OF THE MODERATE VWS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND SOME ADDITIONAL NEAR-TERM WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE, THOUGH THE INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STEADY FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTER TAU 24, AN UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER TOP OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A FASTER RATE OF INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 48. BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO TAP INTO A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, ALLOWING FOR A BURST OF ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 100 KNOTS BY TAU 96, WITH STEADY WEAKENING THEREAFTER AS VWS INCREASES AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL, WITH SOME INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE MID-RANGE FORECAST, AS MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE AMOUNT OF INFLUENCE THE BINARY INTERACTION WILL HAVE ON THE TRACK FORECAST. WHILE THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS TIGHT, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES SURROUNDING THE BINARY INTERACTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX- HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN