WTXS32 PGTW 060300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 005 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 060000Z --- NEAR 16.3S 105.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 105.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 16.3S 105.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 16.2S 106.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 15.9S 106.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 15.3S 107.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 15.7S 109.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 17.5S 111.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 060300Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 105.5E. 06APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 27S (TWENTYSEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 610 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL- DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE, WITH LIMITED BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 052319Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE EXPOSED CENTER WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS, HEDGED ABOVE THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATE OF 2.3 (33 KNOTS) AND THE PGTW CI OF 2.5 (35 KNOTS), BASED ON RECENT ASCAT DATA. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES PULSES OF OUTFLOW FROM TC 26S IMPINGING ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS BEEN REVISED SIGNIFICANTLY BASED ON THE LIKELY BINARY INTERACTION SCENARIO WITH THE LARGER, MORE DOMINANT TC 26S. TC 27S IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE LOW-LEVEL NEAR- EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH THROUGH TAU 36. BY TAU 48, TC 27S IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH WITHIN 420NM OF TC 26S, WHICH WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SPECIFICALLY, TC WILL TURN EASTWARD THEN SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT ACCELERATES AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF TC 26S. THE SYSTEM WILL PEAK OPTIMISTICALLY AT 50 KNOTS BY TAU 36 BUT WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AFTER TAU 48 AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED IN THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF TC 26S. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE BULK OF THE SOLUTIONS SUPPORTING THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, HOWEVER, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST TRACK DUE TO WEAK STEERING / ERRATIC MOTION IN THE EARLY TAUS AND THE COMPLEX SCENARIO / BINARY INTERACTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z, 061500Z, 062100Z AND 070300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN