WTXS31 PGTW 052100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 006 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 051800Z --- NEAR 11.3S 120.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.3S 120.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 12.0S 119.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 13.0S 118.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 14.0S 116.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 15.1S 115.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 17.2S 112.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 19.4S 110.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 21.9S 109.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 052100Z POSITION NEAR 11.5S 120.4E. 05APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (SEROJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 761 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 051820Z GMI 37GHZ IMAGE INDICATES CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A RAGGED BUT DEFINED LLCC, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF THE PGTW T3.0 (45 KNOTS) DVORAK ESTIMATE AND THE APRF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) DVORAK ESTIMATE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. TC 26S IS FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA THROUGH TAU 72 THEN TURN POLEWARD THROUGH TAU 120 AS A DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES AUSTRALIA. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT LENDING MODERATE CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 26S IS FORECAST INTENSIFY STEADILY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS BY TAU 96 WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING ANTICIPATED BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z, 060900Z, 061500Z AND 062100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX- HOURLY UPDATES.// BT #0001