WTXS32 PGTW 051500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 003 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 051200Z --- NEAR 16.0S 105.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 105.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 16.2S 105.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 16.1S 106.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 15.9S 106.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 15.9S 106.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 16.3S 107.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 16.9S 107.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 19.1S 109.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 051500Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 105.3E. 05APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 626 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 051005Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH OF AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), SUPPORTING THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS HEDGED ABOVE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5/35KTS AND THE PARTIAL 051249Z ASCAT METOP-A IMAGE, AND SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) T3.6(57KTS) AND THE SATELLITE CONSENSUS (SATCON) OF 67KTS. ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, OFFSET WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM (29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. THE RECENT TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP INDICATES THE COLD DRY AIR INTRUSION WEAKENING AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THE CYCLONE HAS STALLED INTO A RECENTLY DEVELOPED COL AREA BETWEEN TC 27S AND TC 26S TO THE NORTHEAST. TC 27S IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY WITH SOME SLIGHT EASTWARD MOTION AS THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST WEAKENS AND RECEDES WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE POLEWARD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL ASSUME STEERING. THE SLOW MOTION OF THE SYSTEM AND MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL A SLOW INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 60KTS BY TAU 72. AFTERWARD, THE CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN TO 45KTS BY TAU 120 AS POSSIBLE BINARY INTERACTION WITH TC 26S BEGINS TO ABSORB TC 27S. THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT DUE TO THE COL DEVELOPMENT HAS INCREASED THE ALREADY LARGE DISCREPANCY AMONG THE NUMERICAL MODELS. THE LARGE VARIANCE IN THE PROJECTED TRACKS LENDS LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST LAID CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z, 060300Z, 060900Z AND 061500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN