WTXS31 PGTW 051500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 005 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 051200Z --- NEAR 11.2S 121.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.2S 121.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 11.7S 119.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 12.6S 118.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 13.7S 117.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 15.2S 115.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 17.5S 112.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 20.0S 111.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 22.7S 110.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 051500Z POSITION NEAR 11.3S 121.1E. 05APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 404 NM NORTH OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUING TO CONSOLIDATE AROUND A REGION OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH FRAGMENTED RAIN BANDS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXTRAPOLATION OF A 051027Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50KTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN MULTIPLE DVORAK AGENCY INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0/45KTS FROM PGTW, APRF, AND ADT T3.2/49KTS, BUT REMAINS LOWER THAN KNES T4.0/65KTS AND THE SATELLITE CONSENSUS (SATCON) OF 67KTS. TC 26S IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH FAIR RADIAL OUTFLOW, SLIGHTLY OFFSET WITH MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST). THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWEST AS THE MAIN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST WEAKENS OVER THE FLORES SEA AND BECOMES LESS OF AN INFLUENCE TO TC SEROJA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK, ALLOWING FOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 100KTS BY TAU 96. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SST WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 95KTS AS THE CYCLONE TRACKS MORE SOUTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE STEERING STR WEAKENING AND RECEDING EASTWARD. NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY TIGHT AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 72. AFTERWARD, ALONG AND CROSS TRACK ERRORS BECOME SIGNIFICANT ACROSS ALL MODELS, LIKELY DUE TO POSSIBLE BINARY INTERACTION WITH TC 27S, CURRENTLY IN THE INDIAN OCEAN SOUTH OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. THIS INTERACTION SEEMS TO BE LESS PROMINENT IN THE LATER TAUS OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE HIGH TRACK ERROR OF TC 26S. THE OVERALL JTWC TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND IS LAID OVER AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS UP TO TAU 48. AFTERWARD, THE FORECAST TRACK IS LAID JUST RIGHT OF THE CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE LEFT MARGIN OUTLIERS OF AFUM AND EGRR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z, 060300Z, 060900Z AND 061500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN