WTXS32 PGTW 050900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 002 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 050600Z --- NEAR 15.6S 104.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 104.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 15.8S 105.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 15.8S 105.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 15.7S 106.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 15.6S 106.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 15.9S 107.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 16.7S 108.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 19.1S 109.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 050900Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 105.0E. 05APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 659 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A DISORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH TWO PRIMARY AREAS OF DEEP FLARING CONVECTION. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) REMAINS OBSCURED BY THE SMALLER AREA WITH THE LARGER AREA TO THE EAST EMBEDDED IN A LARGE FORMATIVE BAND LOOSELY WRAPPING TOWARD THE LLC. ANOTHER CONVECTIVE BAND, ALBEIT MUCH SHALLOWER AND MORE FRAGMENTED, IS FEEDING IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE FROM A 050622Z ATMS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS HEDGED ABOVE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5/35KTS AND LOWER THAN THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) T3.6(57KTS) AND THE SATELLITE CONSENSUS (SATCON) OF 52KTS. ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05-10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM (29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. THE RECENT TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW SLIGHT COLD DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THE SOUTHWEST, SLIGHTLY HINDERING MORE ROBUST DEVELOPMENT. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A LOW REFLECTION OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST. TC 27S WILL TRACK MORE EASTWARD AS THE NER WEAKENS AND RECEDES WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN MORE POLEWARD AS A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST ASSUMES STEERING. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL A SLOW INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 65KTS BY TAU 96. AFTERWARD, THE CYCLONE WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN TO 50KTS BY TAU 120 AS BINARY INTERACTION WITH TC 26S COMMENCES AND INCREASES THE COMPLEXITY OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST WITH BOTH SYSTEMS. DUE TO TC 26S BEING THE LARGER AND MORE DOMINANT CYCLONE, IT WILL BEGIN TO SUPPRESS TC 27S. THERE IS A LARGE UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE NUMERICAL MODELS, LARGELY DUE TO THE BINARY INTERACTION WITH TC 26S, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z, 052100Z, 060300Z AND 060900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN