WTXS31 PGTW 050900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 003 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 050600Z --- NEAR 11.1S 121.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.1S 121.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 11.7S 120.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 12.5S 119.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 13.6S 117.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 14.8S 116.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 17.6S 112.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 19.9S 111.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 23.0S 111.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 050900Z POSITION NEAR 11.2S 121.5E. 05APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 408 NM NORTH OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUING TO CONSOLIDATE AROUND A REGION OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH FRAGMENTED RAIN BANDS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON LOW CLOUD TRACING IN THE MSI LOOP INTO AN EXPOSED PORTION OF A LARGE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50KTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN MULTIPLE DVORAK AGENCY INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0/45KTS FROM PGTW AND KNES AND BETWEEN APRF T3.5/55KTS, THE ADT OBJECTIVE ESTIMATE OF T3.2/49KTS, AND THE SATELLITE CONSENSUS (SATCON) OF 53KTS. TC 26S IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST). THE CYCLONE IS NOW MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST BUILDS IN AND THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST MOVES SLIGHTLY WEST OVER THE FLORES SEA. THE STR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND DRIVE TC 26S SOUTHWESTWARD. THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK AND PROMOTE STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 105KTS BY TAU 96. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SST WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 95KTS BY TAU 120 AS THE CYCLONE TRACKS MORE SOUTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE STEERING STR WEAKENING AND RECEDING EASTWARD. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY TIGHT AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 72. AFTERWARD, ALONG TRACK AND CROSS TRACK ERRORS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE ACROSS ALL MODELS, MOST LIKELY DUE TO THE CHAOTIC NATURE OF BINARY INTERACTION WITH TC 27S, CURRENTLY IN THE INDIAN OCEAN SOUTH OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. THE OVERALL JTWC TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND IS LAID OVER, BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN, THE MODEL CONSENSUS UP TO TAU 72. AFTERWARD, THE FORECAST TRACK IS LAID JUST LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE RIGHT OUTLIERS OF THE NVGM, ECMF, AND EEMN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z, 052100Z, 060300Z AND 060900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN