WTXS31 PGTW 050300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 003 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 050000Z --- NEAR 10.6S 122.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.6S 122.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 11.1S 121.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 11.9S 120.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 12.8S 118.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 14.0S 116.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 16.9S 113.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 19.0S 111.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 22.1S 111.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 050300Z POSITION NEAR 10.7S 122.3E. 05APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (SEROJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 501 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM EVEN AS RAIN BANDS REMAIN FRAGMENTED WITH MINIMAL SEGMENTS OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) IN THE SUVA SEA JUST SOUTHWEST OF TIMOR. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON LOW CLOUD TRACING IN THE MSI LOOP INT O AN EXPOSED PORTION OF A LARGE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45KTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0/45KTS FROM PGTW AND KNES THAT ARE SUPPORTED BY THE ADT OBJECTIVE ESTIMATE OF T3.2/49KTS. TC 26S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ALOFT, AND WARM (29C)SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) IN THE SUVA SEA. TC SEROJA IS QS IN A COL TOWARD THE CENTER OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHWEST, A NER TO THE NORTHEAST, AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. THE STR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD, REORIENT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SLOWLY DRIVE TC 26S SOUTHWESTWARD. THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK AND PROMOTE STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 100KTS BY TAU 96. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SST WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 90KTS BY TAU 120 AS THE CYCLONE TRACKS MORE SOUTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE STEERING STR WEAKENING AND RECEDING EASTWARD. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY TIGHT AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 48. AFTERWARD, NOTABLE SPREADING OCCURS TO OVER 290NM BY TAU 120 WITH ECMF, EEMN, AND NVGM ON THE RIGHT MARGIN OF THE ENVELOPE, LIKELY DUE TO EXCESSIVE BINARY INTERACTION WITH TC 27S, CURRENTLY IN THE INDIAN OCEAN SOUTH OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND, THAT IS PROJECTED TO APPROACH TC 26S TOWARD THE LATTER TAUS BUT WELL OUTSIDE OF 600NM. THIS, AND THE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE COL AND ITS QS STATE, LEND OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID OVER BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS UP TO TAU 72. AFTERWARD, THE FORECAST TRACK IS LAID JUST LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE RIGHT MARGIN OUTLIERS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z, 051500Z, 052100Z AND 060300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN