WTXS31 PGTW 042100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (TWENTYSIX) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (TWENTYSIX) WARNING NR 002 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 041800Z --- NEAR 10.5S 123.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.5S 123.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 10.9S 122.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 11.6S 120.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 12.5S 119.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 13.6S 117.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 16.7S 113.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 19.3S 111.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 22.6S 110.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 042100Z POSITION NEAR 10.6S 122.8E. 04APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (TWENTYSIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 480 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RAGGED BUT CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM THAT IS QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) IN THE SUVA SEA JUST SOUTHWEST OF TIMOR. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON LOW CLOUD TRACING IN THE EIR LOOP AND FIT INSIDE A LARGE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 1654Z ATMS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45KTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0/45KTS FROM PGTW AND KNES THAT ARE SUPPORTED BY THE SATCON OBJECTIVE ESTIMATE OF 50KTS. TC 26S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ALOFT, AND WARM (29C)SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) IN THE SUVA SEA. THE CYCLONE IS QS IN A COL IN THE MIDDLE OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHWEST, A NER TO THE NORTHEAST, AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. THE STR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD, REORIENT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SLOWLY DRIVE TC 26S SOUTHWESTWARD. THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK AND PROMOTE STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 100KTS BY TAU 96. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SST WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 85KTS BY TAU 120 AS THE CYCLONE TRACKS MORE SOUTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE STEERING STR WEAKENING AND RECEDING EASTWARD. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY TIGHT AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 48. AFTERWARD, SIGNIFICANT SPREADING OCCURS TO OVER 500NM BY TAU 120. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE LARGE VARIANCE AMONG THE MODELS BINARY INTERACTION WITH NEWLY-FORMED TC 27S, CURRENTLY IN THE INDIAN OCEAN SOUTH OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND, PROJECTED TO APPROACH TC 26S TOWARD THE LATTER TAUS. THIS, AND THE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE COL AND ITS QS STATE, LEND OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID OVER BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS UP TO TAU 72. AFTERWARD, THE FORECAST TRACK LEANS JUST LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS IN ANTICIPATION OF A DOMINANT TC 26S WITH MINIMAL BINARY INTERACTION WITH TC 27S. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z, 050900Z, 051500Z AND 052100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE- HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN