WTXS31 PGTW 041500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (TWENTYSIX) WARNING NR 001// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (TWENTYSIX) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 041200Z --- NEAR 10.4S 123.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.4S 123.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 10.7S 122.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 11.4S 121.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 12.0S 119.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 13.2S 118.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 16.4S 114.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 19.2S 112.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 21.9S 111.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 041500Z POSITION NEAR 10.5S 123.1E. 04APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (TWENTYSIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 454 NM NORTH OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS A BROAD SYSTEM CONSOLIDATING WITH FORMATIVE BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTER INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OVER THE SAVU SEA. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 041041Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE AND A TIGHT GROUPING OF AGENCY FIXES WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY MULTIPLE DVORAK AGENCY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND APRF, AND SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN KNES T3.0 (45 KNOTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM RESIDES EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, ENVELOPED IN A SMALL REGION OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30C). TC 26S CURRENTLY RESIDES IN A VERY WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND WILL BEGIN MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHWEST, AN INCREASE IN POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL ENHANCE THE INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK STRENGTH OF 85 KNOTS BY TAU 72. DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, BINARY INTERACTION WITH INVEST 90S IS LIKELY, THE TWO SYSTEMS REMAINING NEARLY 500NM APART BY SOME MODEL ESTIMATES. THIS INTERACTION WILL CREATE A DYNAMIC CHANGE TO TC 26S INTENSIFICATION AND TRACK MOTION, ADDING INHERENT UNCERTAINTY. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT DURING THE NEAR TERM WITH ALONG AND CROSS TRACK ERROR OF 52NM OUT TO TAU 24. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED INTERACTION WITH INVEST 90S, THE SPREAD CONTINUES TO DIVERGE TO 630NM BY TAU 120. THE SPREAD IN MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE LENDS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL JTWC TRACK FORECAST, CURRENTLY LAID SLIGHTLY RIGHT OF CONSENSUS, FAVORING THE ECMWF AND NAVGEM MODELING GUIDANCE OVER THE LEFT OUTLIERS OF GFS AND AFUM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z, 050900Z AND 051500Z. 2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERCEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 031400).// NNNN