ABIO10 PGTW 021800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/021800Z-031800ZAPR2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 10.4N 95.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 97.3E, APPROXIMATELY 75 
NM WEST OF KADAN, MYANMAR. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION OBSCURING AN 
ELONGATED, POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ANALYSES 
INDICATE INVEST 90B IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT 
WITH WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OFFSET BY WEAK 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90B 
WILL NOT SIGNIFICANTLY INTENSIFY AND WILL REMAIN BELOW TROPICAL STORM
INTENSITY WHILE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 10.4S 122.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.0S 122.3E, APPROXIMATELY 75 
NM WEST OF ROTE ISLAND, INDONESIA. ANIMATED EIR 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BAND OF STRONG SOUTHERN CONVECTION 
WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LLC. 99S 
IS EMBEDDED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LIGHT (05-10KTS) VWS, 
WARM SST OF 30C, AND DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE. DYNAMICAL MODELS SUPPORT 
CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH 
WITHIN 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 9.1S 103.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.5S 103.3E, APPROXIMATELY 144 
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS DISORGANIZED CONVECTION AROUND A BROAD, POORLY 
DEFINED, AND ELONGATED LOW LLC. 90S IS EMBEDDED IN A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT WITH LIGHT (<15 KTS) VWS AND WARM (29-30C) SST. 
DYNAMICAL MODELS SUPPORT CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION TO 
TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH WITHIN 72-96 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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