ABIO10 PGTW 020830 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/REISSUED/020830Z-021800ZAPR2021// RMKS/ 1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.8N 94.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 95.8E, APPROXIMATELY 212 NM NORTHWEST OF PHUKET, THAILAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A PARTIAL 011128Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A DISORGANIZED DISTURBANCE WITH FLARING CONVECTION AND AN EXPOSED, ELONGATED, POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS INVEST 90B IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT AND MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, OFFSET BY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90B WILL NOT SIGNIFICANTLY INTENSIFY AND WILL REMAIN BELOW TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY WHILE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.1S 103.5E, APPROXIMATELY 148 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 020010Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT LOW-LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT HAS MOVED SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. 90S IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT, CHARACTERIZED BY LOW VERTICAL SHEAR OF 5-10 KTS, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 30C, AND AMBIENT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. DYNAMICAL MODELS GENERALLY EXPECT SOME CONSOLIDATION OF THE SYSTEM IN THE 48- 72 HOUR RANGE AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.4S 122.2E, APPROXIMATELY 14 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAWU ISLAND, INDONESIA. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN ELONGATED LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED BETWEEN A BELT OF 20-25 KT EASTERLIES IN THE TIMOR SEA AND A BELT OF 30-35 KT WESTERLIES NORTH OF THE SAVU SEA, AS ASSESSED FROM A 020146Z ASCAT-C PASS. DEEP CONVECTION IS PATCHY AND DECENTRALIZED, BUT FORMATIVE CURVED BANDING IS BECOMING APPARENT IN THE SOUTHERN, WESTERN, AND NORTHERN SEMICIRCLES. 99S IS EMBEDDED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OF 10 KTS, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 30C, AND DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE. DYNAMICAL MODELS SUPPORT CONTINUED CONSOLIDATION OF THE BROAD CIRCULATION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE SOUTH OF TIMOR-LESTE IN 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM. (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED A LOW AREA IN PARAGRAPH 2.B.(1) AND A MEDIUM AREA IN PARAGRAPH 2.B.(2).// NNNN