ABIO10 PGTW 311800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/311800ZMAR2021-011800ZAPR2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 7.2N 93.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.8N 94.5E, APPROXIMATELY 231 NM 
WEST-NORTHWEST OF PHUKET, THAILAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 310705Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A 
DISORGANIZED DISTURBANCE WITH FLARING CONVECTION THAT IS OFFSET TO 
THE WEST OF A BROAD, ELONGATED, AND ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS INVEST 90B IS IN A 
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, 
WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20 
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT 
THAT INVEST 90B WILL NOT SIGNIFICANTLY INTENSIFY AND REMAIN BELOW 
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WHILE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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