ABIO10 PGTW 301800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/301800Z-311800ZMAR2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 6.6N 92.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.2N 93.5E, APPROXIMATELY 292 NM 
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PHUKET, THAILAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED DISTURBANCE WITH WEAK 
FLARING CONVECTION THAT IS OFFSET TO THE WEST OF AN AREA OF BROAD, 
ELONGATED, AND ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 301431Z AMSU-B 
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A LACK OF CONSOLIDATION AND FORMATIVE 
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. HOWEVER, INVEST 90B IS IN A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES, ABUNDANT WESTWARD OUTFLOW, AND MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE SPLIT IN AGREEMENT THAT 
INVEST 90B WILL MARGINALLY CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY WITHOUT 
REACHING TC STRENGTH WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS TRACKING THE VORTEX 
GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD YANGON, MYANMAR. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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