ABIO10 PGTW 300130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/300130Z-301800ZMAR2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.6N 
92.4E, APPROXIMATELY 357 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PHUKET, THAILAND. 
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED 
DISTURBANCE WITH WEAK FLARING CONVECTION THAT IS OFFSET TO THE WEST OF 
AN AREA OF BROAD, ELONGATED, AND ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. 
A 291935Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A LACK OF CONSOLIDATION 
AND FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. HOWEVER, INVEST 90B IS IN A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES, ABUNDANT WESTWARD OUTFLOW, AND LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE SPLIT IN DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM. 
NVGM INDICATES CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 
(TC) STRENGTH BY TAU 66, GFS SHOWS SOME CONSOLIDATION AND A BRIEF 
INTENSIFICATION TO TC STRENGTH BY TAU 84, AND UKMET AND ECMWF INDICATE 
THAT 90B WILL CONSOLIDATE MARGINALLY WITHOUT REACHING TC STRENGTH WITH 
THE MODEL CONSENSUS TRACKING THE VORTEX GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD 
TOWARD YANGON, MYANMAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) AS LOW.//
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