ABIO10 PGTW 281800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/281800Z-291800ZMAR2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/280851ZMAR21//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 11.7S 68.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.0S 68.5E, APPROXIMATELY 322 
NM SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATTELITE IMAGERY AND A 281357Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW 
PULSING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS 98S HAS MARGINAL 
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (29-
30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-25KTS) 
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO 
DISAGREE REGARDING INTENSIFICATION BUT COLLECTIVELY SHOW 98S 
TRACKING EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 280900) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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