ABIO10 PGTW 271800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/271800Z-281800ZMAR2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/270851ZMAR21//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 10.2S 65.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4S 66.0E, APPROXIMATELY 421 
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 271411Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A 
WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING 
CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. INVEST 98S IS IN A MOSTLY 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29C) 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY HIGH (20-30KTS) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR. NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE MIXED OPINIONS ON DEVELOPMENT, WITH 
MOST SHOWING ONLY SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OF 98S, BUT AGREEING THAT 
IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 
270900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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