ABIO10 PGTW 270100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN /REISSUED/270100Z-271800ZMAR2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 10.8S 90.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.5S 90.2E, APPROXIMATELY 408 
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR) 
AND A 261242Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT LOWER LEVEL BANDS 
WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH AREAS OF 
CYCLING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. 95S IS CURRENTLY IN 
A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
(VWS), AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET 
BY WEAK TO MARGINAL POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN 
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 95S WILL REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY AND DISSIPATE 
OVER THE NEXT 72HRS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 
NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 9.48S 64.55E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.9S 64.9E, APPROXIMATELY 474 
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY AND A 
262048Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT FORMATIVE BANDING AND 
PERSISTENT CONVECTION FLARING NEAR A LLCC. A 261734Z ASCAT-B IMAGE 
SHOWS 25-30KT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SLIGHTLY 
ELONGATED LLCC. 98S IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH 
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
(VWS) AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE IN OVERALL DISAGREEMENT OF BOTH TRACK AND POTENTIAL 
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2) TO 
MEDIUM.//
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