ABIO10 PGTW 261800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/261800Z-271800ZMAR2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 11.6S 91.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.8S 90.8E, APPROXIMATELY 359 
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR) 
AND A 261242Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT LOWER LEVEL BANDS 
WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH AREAS OF 
CYCLING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. 95S IS CURRENTLY IN 
A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
(VWS), AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET 
BY WEAK TO MARGINAL POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN 
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 95S WILL REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY AND DISSIPATE 
OVER THE NEXT 72HRS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 
NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 8.3S 64.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.48S 64.55E, APPROXIMATELY 485 
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY AND A 
261425Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT FORMATIVE, FRAGMENTED 
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LLCC THAT IS OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION. 
A 261619Z ASCAT-A IMAGE SHOWS 20-25KT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LLCC. 98S IS CURRENTLY IN A 
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, 
MODERATE (15 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (29 TO 
30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL 
DISAGREEMENT OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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