ABIO10 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/260300Z-261800ZMAR2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 11.7S 91.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.6S 91.3E, APPROXIMATELY 328 
NM WEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 260005Z SSMIS 91GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICT LOWER 
LEVEL BANDS WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS 
OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION. 95S IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINALLY 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MINIMAL POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WARM (29 TO 30 
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL 
AGREEMENT THAT 95S WILL REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY AND DISSIPATE OVER 
THE NEXT 72HRS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.3S 
64.7E, APPROXIMATELY 466 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED 
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) IMAGERY AND A 252136Z SSMIS 91GHZ SATELLITE 
PARTIAL IMAGE DEPICT FORMATIVE, ALBEIT FRAGMENTED, BANDING WRAPPING 
INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS OBSCURED BY BUILDING 
CONVECTION. 98S IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, 
AND LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL DISAGREEMENT. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO 
REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: DOWNGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1). TO 
LOW. ADDED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2) AS LOW.//
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