ABIO10 PGTW 251800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/251800Z-261800ZMAR2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 11.7S 91.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9S 92.2E, APPROXIMATELY 273 
NM WEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 251045Z SSMIS 91GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICT 
MARGINAL LOWER LEVEL TURNING WITH TWO DISTINCT POCKETS OF DEEP 
CONVECTION OBSCURING THE BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). 95S IS 
CURRENTLY IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MINIMAL 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WARM (29 TO 28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, 
AND LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 95S WILL REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY WITH OVER THE NEXT 24HRS WITH NO INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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