ABIO10 PGTW 241800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT/TYPHOON/WRNCEN/PEARL/HARBOR/HI//SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/OCEAN/241800Z-
251800ZMAR2021//RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
11.5S 94.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.7S 91.2E, APPROXIMATELY 335 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 241309Z SSMIS 37GHZ DEPICT FLARING CONVECTION 
SOUTHEAST OF AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). 95S IS CURRENTLY 
IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND 
WARM (29 TO 28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE 
(20 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR 
ENTRAINMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE SPLIT REGARDING 95S, WITH UKMET, NAVGEM, 
AND CMC SHOWING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION, BUT OTHERS 
INDICATING THAT 95S WILL REMAIN BROAD AND WEAK BEFORE DISSIPATING. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM 
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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