ABIO10 PGTW 231800 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/231800Z-241800ZMAR2021// RMKS/ 1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.5S 94.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12S 92.3E, APPROXIMATELY 264 NM WEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 231511Z AMSU-B 89GHZ DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 231514Z METOP-B PERIPHERAL ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED, ASYMMETRIC LLC WITH HIGHER WINDS IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. 95S IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (27 TO 28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE SPLIT REGARDING 95S, WITH UKMET, NAVGEM, AND CMC SHOWING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION, BUT OTHERS INDICATING THAT 95S WILL REMAIN BROAD AND WEAK BEFORE DISSIPATING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.// NNNN