ABIO10 PGTW 221330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/221330Z-221800ZMAR2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 11.5S 94.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.8S 92.7E, APPROXIMATELY 248 
NM WEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF AN 
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) AND A DIURNALLY FLARING 
CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURE WRAPPING IN FROM THE EAST. A 221044Z 
SSMIS F-16 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE SMALL, COMMA-SHAPED 
REGION OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH A SHORT TAIL EXTENDING NORTH. A 
220301Z METOP-B PERIPHERAL ASCAT PASS SHOWS THE VERY ELONGATED, VERY 
ASYMMETRIC LLC WITH ELEVATED (25 TO 30 KNOTS) WIND CONTAINED TO THE 
SOUTH. 95S IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A DEVELOPING 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, LOW (5 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, 
AND WARM (28 TO 29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS 
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95S WILL REMAIN BROAD AND WEAK BEFORE 
DISSIPATING; HOWEVER, THE UKMET GLOBAL MODEL STANDS AS THE OUTLIER, 
DEPICTING MORE INTENSIFICATION THAN THE REST, POTENTIALLY REACHING 
WARNING CRITERIA IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO 
MEDIUM.//
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