ABIO10 PGTW 211800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/211800Z-221800ZMAR2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.2S 96.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.5S 94.4E, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM 
WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 211208Z SSMIS 91GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE 
DEPICT LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS OBSCURED BY PERSISTENT CONVECTION.  
INVEST 95S IS IN AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT 
WITH LOW (<15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM (28-30 CELSIUS) 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. NUMERICAL 
MODELS PROVIDE DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS SOLUTION, 
FOR EXAMPLE, PREDICTS ONLY MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE NAVGEM AND 
UKMET SOLUTIONS PREDICT MODERATE DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL STORM 
STRENGTH SYSTEM. THERE IS FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM 
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL 
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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