ABIO10 PGTW 201800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/201800Z-211800ZMAR2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.2S 
96.2E, APPROXIMATELY 1182 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA.  
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS LOW LEVEL
CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS
PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION. INVEST 95S IS IN AN OVERALL
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, WARM (28-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MODEST
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. NUMERICAL MODELS PROVIDE DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS 
OVER THE NEXT 96 HOURS. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS SOLUTION, FOR EXAMPLE, 
PREDICTS ONLY MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TAU 96 WHILE THE ECMWF 
SOLUTION PREDICTS MODERATE DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
SYSTEM BY THAT TIME. THERE IS FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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