WTXS32 PGTW 152100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WARNING NR 024// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WARNING NR 024 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 151800Z --- NEAR 22.1S 71.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.1S 71.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 22.2S 70.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 22.3S 69.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 152100Z POSITION NEAR 22.1S 71.0E. 15MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (HABANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 454 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT MATHURIN, RODRIGUES ISLAND, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAIN CONVECTION CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY DECAY AS IT SHEARED 160NM+ SOUTHEASTWARD FROM A LARGE, RAGGED, AND FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE LLC FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AVERAGED FROM THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.0/30KTS FROM PGTW AND T2.6/39KTS FROM ADT AND REFLECTS THE RAPIDLY WEAKENING STATE OF THE CYCLONE. THE SYSTEM IS IN A VERY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH (25KTS+) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALOFT AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT NEAR THE SURFACE. TC 24S IS QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) IN A COL BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE WEST AND THE STR TO THE EAST. ANOTHER STR BUILDING TO THE SOUTH WILL ASSUME STEERING AROUND TAU 12 AND SLOWLY DRIVE THE SYSTEM WESTWARD. THE HARSH CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AND ERODE TC HABANA TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 12. AFTERWARD, ITS REMNANTS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD, STEERED BY THE STR TO THE SOUTH. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT; HOWEVER, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN THE VORTEX EVENTUALLY EXITS THE COL, THERE IS ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE FORECAST IS ALSO EXTENDED TO TAU 24 TO SHOW THE REMNANT STORM MOTION. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 13 FEET.// NNNN