WTXS32 PGTW 150900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WARNING NR 023// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WARNING NR 023 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 150600Z --- NEAR 22.5S 71.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.5S 71.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 22.4S 70.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 22.3S 69.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 22.3S 68.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 22.1S 66.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 21.7S 64.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 150900Z POSITION NEAR 22.5S 71.1E. 15MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (HABANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 795 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 24S IS WEAKENING STEADILY UNDER HIGH (25-35 KNOTS) WEST-NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AS REVEALED IN ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. MSI INDICATES RAPIDLY-DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION SHEARING OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF AN EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS BASED ON PGTW/FMEE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 3.0-3.5 (45-55 KNOTS). TC HABANA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER HIGH VWS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. TC 24S IS SITUATED WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE WEST AND A STR TO THE EAST, AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ERRATICALLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN ACCELERATE WESTWARD AS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL STR BUILDS TO THE SOUTH AFTER TAU 12. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT SUPPORTING THE SHORT-TERM QUASI- STATIONARY TRACK MOTION AND WESTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 12, HOWEVER, THE OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS MODERATE. DUE TO THE STEADY WEAKENING TREND, INCREASING VWS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, THE SYSTEM IS NOW EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 72 OR PERHAPS EARLIER. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT THE SYSTEM MAY REGENERATE TO GALE-FORCE STRENGTH AFTER TAU 72 AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD OVER WARM SST (27-28C) BUT UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z AND 160900Z.// NNNN