WTXS32 PGTW 142100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WARNING NR 022// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WARNING NR 022 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 141800Z --- NEAR 22.1S 71.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.1S 71.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 21.7S 71.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 21.6S 70.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 21.6S 69.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 21.6S 67.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 21.4S 65.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 142100Z POSITION NEAR 22.0S 71.1E. 14MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 781 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED STRUCTURE WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) BEGINNING TO EMERGE TO THE NORTH OF FLARING CONVECTION WHICH IS SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST. A 141521Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE CONFIRMS THE DECOUPLING OF THE LLCC AND DISRUPTION OF THE TC CORE. A 141636Z ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER BULLSEYE LENT HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION, AND PROVIDED GOOD DATA TO SUPPORT AN UPDATE TO THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS AND WIND RADII. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE AND IS HEDGED LOWER THAN AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KTS) FROM PGTW AND FMEE IN LIGHT OF THE ASCAT DATA WHICH DEPICTED 55 KNOT MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. OVER THE PREVIOUS TWELVE HOURS THE ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY HOSTILE. CIMSS ANALYSIS REVEALS A NORTHWESTERLY VWS OF 25-30 KNOTS AND HWRF VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS REVEAL VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS NOW HAVING COMPLETELY ENVELOPED THE CORE OF TC 24S ABOVE THE 750MB LEVEL. THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG SHEAR AND DRY AIR HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO OVERCOME THE PERSISTENT AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, LEADING TO STEADY WEAKENING AND ULTIMATE DISSIPATION BY TAU 72, IF NOT BEFORE. TC 24S IS NESTLED IN A WEAK AND COMPETING STEERING PATTERN BETWEEN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERS TO THE EAST AND WEST. TRACK MOTION WILL BE ERRATIC THROUGH TAU 24, BUT AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH, IT WILL ACCELERATE WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE THROUGH TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SCENARIO BUT DUE TO THE NEAR-TERM ERRATIC MOTION AND GENERALLY HIGH UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK STEERING PATTERNS, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z AND 152100Z.// NNNN