WTXS32 PGTW 140900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WARNING NR 021// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WARNING NR 021 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 140600Z --- NEAR 21.9S 70.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.9S 70.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 21.8S 70.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 21.5S 70.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 21.4S 69.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 21.3S 68.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 21.3S 65.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 21.3S 63.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 140900Z POSITION NEAR 21.9S 70.4E. 14MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (HABANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 736 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 24S IS WEAKENING STEADILY UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOTS) WEST-NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AS REVEALED IN ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. EIR IMAGERY INDICATES AN INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES. A 140408Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH LIMITED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST QUADRANTS, WHICH REFLECTS THE RAPID DECAY OF THE CORE CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A 140411Z METOP-B ASCAT BULLSEYE IMAGE SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND INDICATES 50-55 KNOT MAXIMUM WINDS AND A SHRINKING GALE-FORCE WIND FIELD OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON PGTW/FMEE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS). VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST (27-28C) ARE OFFSETTING THE PERSISTENT VWS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT SOMEWHAT, HOWEVER, TC HABANA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER INCREASING VWS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. TC 24S IS SITUATED WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE WEST AND A STR TO THE EAST, AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ERRATICALLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN ACCELERATE WESTWARD AS A BROAD STR BUILDS TO THE SOUTH BY TAU 36. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT SUPPORTING THE SHORT-TERM QUASI-STATIONARY TRACK MOTION AND WESTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 24, HOWEVER, THE OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS MODERATE. DUE TO THE STEADY WEAKENING TREND, INCREASING VWS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, THE SYSTEM IS NOW EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 96 OR PERHAPS EARLIER. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT THE SYSTEM MAY REGENERATE TO GALE-FORCE STRENGTH AFTER TAU 96 AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD OVER WARM SST (27-28C) BUT UPPER- LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z AND 150900Z.// NNNN