WTXS32 PGTW 132100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WARNING NR 020// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WARNING NR 020 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 131800Z --- NEAR 21.4S 70.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.4S 70.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 21.7S 70.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 21.7S 70.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 21.4S 70.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 21.1S 68.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 21.1S 66.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 21.0S 63.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 21.1S 60.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 132100Z POSITION NEAR 21.5S 70.0E. 13MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 717 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY ALLUDES TO THE PRESENCE OF NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, LEADING TO A DEGRADED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. A 131730Z GPM SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES DEPICTS THE STRONG LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH GOOD EFFECT AND LENT HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. WHILE THE LLCC REMAINS ROBUST, THE MICROWAVE DATA ALSO CONFIRMS THE SIGNIFICANT EROSION OF CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE ON THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE DUE TO THE RELATIVELY HIGH (20-25 KTS) VWS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 80 KNOTS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T4.6 (79 KTS) AND AN AVERAGE OF AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES BETWEEN T4.5 (77 KTS) AND T5.0 (90 KTS). THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE, WITH STRONG AND PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY VWS AND ENTRAINMENT OF INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS, BEING OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY A ROBUST TAP INTO A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY QUASI-STATIONARY IN A WEAK STEERING PATTERN, ENSCONCED IN A COL REGION BETWEEN SUBTROPICAL RIDGES (STR) TO THE EAST AND WEST, AND A TROUGH PASSING TO THE SOUTH. AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, TC 24S IS FORECAST TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY, VERY SLOWLY LOOPING IN A COUNTER-CLOCKWISE MOTION. BY TAU 48 A RELATIVELY STRONG STR WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE TROUGH, EJECTING TC 24S OUT OF THE WEAK STEERING REGION AND ACCELERATE IT WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 120. CONTINUED HIGH VWS, INCREASING MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT WILL SERVE TO STEADILY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE OVERALL UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS COULD RESULT IN DISSIPATION AS EARLY AS TAU 72. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A SMALL IMPROVEMENT IN THE MOISTURE AND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, WHICH COMBINED WITH A TRACK OVER SSTS GREATER THAN 28C, WILL ALLOW FOR THE SYSTEM TO REMAIN A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM THROUGH TAU 120. MODEL GUIDANCE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH ALL MODELS SUPPORTING THE OVERALL TRACK SCENARIO, HOWEVER IN LIGHT OF THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION AND THE EXACT TIMING OF THE ACCELERATION WESTWARD, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z AND 142100Z.// NNNN