WTXS32 PGTW 130900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WARNING NR 019// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WARNING NR 019 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 130600Z --- NEAR 20.7S 70.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.7S 70.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 21.4S 70.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 21.7S 70.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 21.6S 70.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 21.4S 69.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 20.9S 67.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 20.8S 64.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 20.9S 62.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 130900Z POSITION NEAR 20.9S 70.2E. 13MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (HABANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 726 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 24S IS WEAKENING STEADILY UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25 KNOTS) WEST-NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AS REVEALED IN ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A 130410Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES ERODING CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, HOWEVER, CORE CONVECTION REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON A 130600Z ADT ESTIMATE OF 5.0 AND A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 5.0 (90 KNOTS). VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST (27-28C) ARE OFFSETTING THE PERSISTENT VWS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT SOMEWHAT, HOWEVER, TC HABANA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER INCREASING VWS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. TC 24S IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST BUT IS FORECAST TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND THE STR WEAKENS. AFTER TAU 48, A BROAD STR IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE SOUTH, WHICH WILL ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM WESTWARD. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GALWEM AND NAVGEM, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT SUPPORTING THE SHORT-TERM QUASI-STATIONARY TRACK MOTION AND WESTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 48. HOWEVER, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THUS OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS MODERATE. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATE AFTER TAU 72 DUE TO GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (EXCEPT SST VALUES WHICH REMAIN 27-28C THROUGH TAU 120) BUT THE SYSTEM SHOULD MAINTAIN GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE THEREFORE THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS MAINTAINED 35-40 KNOT INTENSITY IN THE LATER TAUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z AND 140900Z.// NNNN