WTXS32 PGTW 122100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WARNING NR 018// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WARNING NR 018 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 121800Z --- NEAR 19.8S 70.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.8S 70.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 20.6S 70.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 21.2S 70.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 21.4S 70.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 01 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 21.3S 70.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 20.9S 70.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 20.8S 67.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 21.1S 65.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 122100Z POSITION NEAR 20.0S 70.8E. 12MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 767 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS PEAKED AND IS ON THE DECLINE, WITH CONVECTION BECOMING MORE RAGGED. THE INITIAL WIND RADII WAS SET ACCORDING TO A 121635Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS. THERE EXISTS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY ASSESSMENTS DUE TO THE DISCERNABLE EYE AND DVORAK ASSESSMENTS FROM BOTH PGTW/FMEE (T5.5/6.0) AND FIMP (T5.0/6.0). WATER VAPOR AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOW CLOUD TOPS WARMING, THE EYE FILLING, AND SOME DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. OVERALL, THE SYSTEM REMAINS INSULATED FROM THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. TC 24S IS MOVING AWAY FROM A REGION OF 28-30 DEGREE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND TOWARDS A REGION OF 26-28 DEGREE WATER, WHERE IT WILL REMAIN UNTIL IT TURNS TOWARD THE WEST. THE COOLING WATERS COUPLED WITH UPWELLING GENERATED BY THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM WILL INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING. BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 48, TC 24S WILL LOSE STEERING INFLUENCE FROM A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST AND MEANDER UNTIL IT IS PICKED UP BY ANOTHER STR BUILDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SECOND ANTICYCLONE WILL NUDGE TC 24S WESTWARD AND KEEP IT EQUATORWARD OF HEAVY SHEAR. AS IT RESUMES ITS WESTWARD TRACK AND LEAVES BEHIND THE COOLER UPWELLED SSTS, IT WILL MOVE THROUGH MARGINALLY FAVORABLE 26-28 DEGREE WATERS AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO NEAR GALE FORCE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST. SO LONG AS THE STORM STAYS EQUATORWARD OF THE 22ND LATITUDE, IT WILL AVOID HEAVY SHEAR AND DECAY PRIMARILY DUE TO OCEANOGRAPHIC FACTORS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST THROUGH TAU 24, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER GIVEN THE QUASI-STATIONARY PERIOD AND TIMING OF THE EXPECTED COUNTER-CLOCKWISE LOOP. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVENTUAL WESTWARD TRACK, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A POSSIBLE RECURVE SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z AND 132100Z.// NNNN