WTXS32 PGTW 120900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WARNING NR 017// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WARNING NR 017 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 120600Z --- NEAR 18.8S 71.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.8S 71.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 19.6S 70.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 20.4S 70.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 20.9S 70.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 21.2S 70.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 20.8S 71.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 20.5S 69.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 21.2S 68.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 120900Z POSITION NEAR 19.0S 71.5E. 12MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 418 NM EAST OF PORT MATHURIN, RODRIGUES ISLAND, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 12-HR ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A COMPACT AND HIGHLY SYMMETRICAL STRUCTURE AND A 25-NM RAGGED BUT WELL-DEFINED EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE, ADJUSTED FOR A SLIGHT PARALLAX TILT AND LINED UP WITH A CLEAR CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 120452Z METOP-B ASCAT 25-KM RES BULLSEYE PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 125KTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE SUSTAINED HIGH INTENSITY AND EIR SIGNATURE OF THE CYCLONE. TC 24S IS IN AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (28-29C) ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) THAT ARE PARTLY OFFSET BY LIMITED RADIAL OUTFLOW. ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATES COLD DRY AIR INTRUSION INTO THE CENTER, AS EVIDENCED IN THE MOST RECENT TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ANIMATION. THIS ADDITIONAL NEGATIVE FACTOR WILL AID IN GRADUAL WEAKENING TO 105KTS IN THE NEXT 24HRS AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. AFTER TAU 24, AS THE STR RECEDES EASTWARD AND REORIENTS, TC 24S WILL SIGNIFICANTLY SLOW DOWN AND TRACK SOUTHWARD INTO A COL BETWEEN THE STEERING STR AND A SECONDARY STR APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) IN A COUNTER-CLOCKWISE LOOPING MOTION UNTIL AT LEAST TAU 72. AFTERWARD, THE SECONDARY STR WILL ASSUME STEERING AND SLOWLY DRIVE THE SYSTEM IN A GENERALLY WESTWARD DIRECTION. THE QS STORM MOTION WILL INDUCE LOCALIZED UPWELLING AND FURTHER COOL THE SSTS, RESULTING IN A RAPID WEAKENING TO 45KTS BY TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, AS THE CYCLONE EJECTS FROM THE COL AND TRACKS WESTWARD, IT WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING VWS, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 120. THE MAJORITY OF THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY, ALBEIT WITH SIGNIFICANT ALONG- AND ACROSS- TRACK DIFFERENCES. NAVGEM IS THE SOLE OUTLIER OFFERING A CONTINUOUS SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK WITH NO QS DELAY IN THE COL. IN VIEW OF THESE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, LAID SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET NAVGEM, UP TAU 24 ONLY; AFTERWARD, THE CONFIDENCE IS LOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z AND 130900Z.// NNNN