WTXS32 PGTW 112100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WARNING NR 016// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WARNING NR 016 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 111800Z --- NEAR 18.1S 73.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S 73.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 18.8S 71.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 19.4S 71.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 20.2S 70.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 20.6S 70.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 00 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 20.7S 71.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 20.2S 69.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 20.6S 67.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 112100Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 72.7E. 11MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (HABANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 553 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT MATHURIN, RODRIGUES ISLAND, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED, CLEAR EYE SURROUNDED BY A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST THAT HAS BEEN PERIODICALLY BROKEN IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE, POSSIBLY DUE TO DRY ENTRAINMENT AS UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BEGIN TO BECOME WESTERLY. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS IDENTIFIED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 111740Z 37GHZ GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 125 KT BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T6.5 (127 KT) FROM PGTW, HEDGING SLIGHTLY BELOW ESTIMATES OF T6.6 (130 KT) FROM ADT, AND 130 KT FROM SATCON. TC 24S REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR (5 KT) AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 28C, AND IS CURRENTLY LIMITED ONLY BY AMBIENT DRY AIR THAT IS BEING PERIODICALLY INGESTED INTO THE CIRCULATION FROM THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN SEMICIRCLES. AS THE CYCLONE TURNS SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, A COMBINATION OF GRADUALLY INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR, SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER, AND DRY ENTRAINMENT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY. BEYOND 48 HOURS, THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES IMPORTANT, AS A QUASISTATIONARY MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE OCEANIC COOLING BENEATH THE CYCLONE. COMBINED WITH A SIMULTANEOUS INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR TO 30-40 KT, THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN RAPID WEAKENING BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS, AND STEADY DECAY THEREAFTER THROUGH 120 HOURS. THERE IS GENERALLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THIS INTENSITY EVOLUTION. REGARDING THE FORECAST TRACK, TC 24S IS CONTINUING TO ROUND THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. AS THIS RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD, THE CYCLONE WILL TURN SOUTHWARD AFTER 24 HOURS. BY 48 HOURS, 24S WILL BECOME MAROONED IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, CONSISTING OF WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE THAT A NEAR-STALL WILL OCCUR AROUND 48-72 HOURS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM AND GALWEM, WHICH MAINTAIN A BRISK SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. GIVEN THE EXPECTATION THAT THE VORTEX WILL RAPIDLY DECAY AND LOSE VERTICAL COHERENCE DURING THIS TIME, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS A BLEND OF HWRF, COAMPS-TC, ECMWF, EPS, GFS, AND GEFS, WHICH SHOWS A SLOW TURN WESTWARD AFTER 72 HOURS AS THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE WEAKENING CYCLONE. THIS REPRESENTS A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT WEST COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, DUE TO A GROWING MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE WESTWARD TURN. THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THIS TRACK FORECAST, DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TIMING AT WHICH THE VORTEX WILL BECOME DECOUPLED FROM DEEP CONVECTION AND MAKE ITS WESTWARD TURN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z AND 122100Z. // NNNN