WTXS32 PGTW 110900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WARNING NR 015// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WARNING NR 015 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 110600Z --- NEAR 17.5S 74.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 74.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 17.8S 73.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 18.5S 72.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 19.2S 71.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 20.0S 70.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 21.1S 71.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 21.8S 71.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 22.6S 72.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 110900Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 74.1E. 11MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (HABANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 631 NM EAST OF PORT MATHURIN, RODRIGUES ISLAND, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 12-HR ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS COMPLETED AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AS THE NEW RAGGED EYE HAS SHRUNK TO APPROXIMATELY 18NM. THE SYSTEM REMAINS COMPACT AND SYMMETRICAL, ALBEIT, THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS NOTICEABLY WARMED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE 110600Z SEVIRI 1-KM RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGE, ADJUSTED FOR A SLIGHT PARALLAX TILT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 125KTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE WEAKENING TREND. ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALOFT AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ANIMATION ALSO INDICATES COLD DRY AIR HAS BEGUN TO INTRUDE TOWARD THE CENTER AND THE RADIAL UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS BEGUN TO DIMINISH, AS EVIDENCED IN A WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP. THESE TWO DYNAMICS WILL MAINLY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SLOW WEAKENING IN THE NEAR- TO MID- TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. TC 24S WILL TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THEN SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 36, AS THE STR RECEDES EASTWARD AND REORIENTS, THE CYCLONE WILL TRACK MORE SOUTHWARD THEN SOUTHEASTWARD. THE GRADUAL WEAKENING CAUSED BY COOL DRY AIR INTRUSION AND MINIMIZED UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW WILL BECOME MORE RAPID AFTER TAU 48 AS THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY, CAUSING LOCALIZED UPWELLING RESULTING IN COOLER SSTS. BY TAU 120, TC HABANA WILL BE REDUCED TO 50KTS. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 36. AFTERWARD, THE SOLUTIONS SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE AS A SECONDARY STR TO THE SOUTHWESTAPPROACHES AND COMPETES FOR STEERING, RESULTING IN A QUASI-STATIONARY STORM MOTION. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST UP TO TAU 48; AFTERWARD, LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z AND 120900Z.// NNNN