WTXS32 PGTW 102100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WARNING NR 014// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WARNING NR 014 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 101800Z --- NEAR 17.4S 75.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S 75.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 17.5S 74.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 17.9S 73.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 18.4S 72.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 19.0S 71.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 19.5S 70.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 01 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 20.0S 70.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 20.6S 70.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 102100Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 75.1E. 10MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (HABANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1040 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENAHNCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 101138Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT THE ONSET OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC), WITH A LARGE OUTER BAND NEARLY ENCIRCLING THE INNER EYEWALL. BASED ON THIS AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.5/7.0 (PGTW), T6.5/7.0 (FMEE), AND T6.5/6.5 (FIMP), AS WELL AS A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 126 KNOTS, THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 130 KTS. THE INTITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A CLEARLY DEFINED EYE IN EIR IMAGERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). THE ERC OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS HAS RESULTED IN A PLATEAU IN INTENSITY. TC 24S HAS TURNED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST- NORTHWEST AS IT ROUNDS THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH, BUT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT TAU 72 AND TOWARD THE SOUTH THROUGH TAU 120. BEYOND TAU 72, A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED, WITH INCREASED UPWELLING. THIS WILL RESULT IN COLDER SSTS, WHICH WILL BE THE PRIMARY FACTOR IN THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. THE FORECAST TRACK WAS PLACED NORTHWEST OF CONSENSUS DUE TO NAVGEM AND GALWEM CONTINUING TO BE EASTERN-MOST OUTLIERS. OVERALL, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE SOUTHWARD TURN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR QUASI- STATIONARY MOTION IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 42 FEET. NEXTWARNINGS AT 110900Z AND 112100Z.// NNNN