WTXS32 PGTW 100900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WARNING NR 013// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WARNING NR 013 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 100600Z --- NEAR 17.5S 76.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 76.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 17.3S 75.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 17.5S 74.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 17.9S 73.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 18.4S 72.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 19.5S 71.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 20.2S 71.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 20.9S 71.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 100900Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 76.4E. 10MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (HABANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1112 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 24S HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS FROM 70 KNOTS AT 09/06Z TO THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH AN 8NM EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. PREVIOUS MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTED TC 24S WAS UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) BUT DUE TO THE LACK OF RECENT HIGH- RESOLUTION MICROWAVE IMAGERY IT'S DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN HOW THIS IS EVOLVING / AFFECTING THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, ERC DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE HINDERING THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM AT THIS TIME. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 115 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T6.0 (115 KNOTS) AND A 100349Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 114 KNOTS. ADDITIONALLY, A 100730Z ADT OBJECTIVE ESTIMATE HAS INCREASED TO 6.0 (115 KNOTS) AS WELL. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29C) SST VALUES. TC 24S IS TRACKING WEST- NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 UNTIL THE STR WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD TURN THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, TC HABANA WILL SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY AND DRIFT SOUTHWARD AS A BROAD STR BUILDS TO THE SOUTH, WHICH WILL LIMIT POLEWARD TRACK MOTION. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM AND GALWEM, WHICH TRACK THE SYSTEM ERRONEOUSLY INTO THE HIGH TO THE SOUTH, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT. OVERALL, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE SOUTHWARD TURN AND POTENTIAL FOR QUASI-STATIONARY TRACK MOTION IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE IS ALSO UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR ERC AS WELL AS UNCERTAINTY IN THE PEAK INTENSITY. OVERALL, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH TAU 60 WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING AFTER TAU 60 AS MID-LEVEL VWS INCREASES TO MODERATE LEVELS AND SST VALUES COOL SLIGHTLY TO 27C. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z AND 110900Z.// NNNN