WTXS32 PGTW 092100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WARNING NR 012// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 091800Z --- NEAR 17.9S 78.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S 78.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 17.5S 76.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 17.4S 75.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 17.6S 74.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 18.1S 73.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 19.2S 71.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 20.5S 71.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 21.8S 72.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 092100Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 77.7E. 09MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 726 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 24S SHOWED SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS AS IT MOVED AWAY FROM A COLD POOL AND INTO WARMER WATERS. A 10NM EYE BEGAN SHOWING OVER THE LAST THREE HOURS PRIOR THE 091800Z FIX. A MICROWAVE EYE IN A 091750Z GPMI SERIES LENDS EXCELLENT CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS NOT QUITE AS HIGH, BUT STILL GOOD: THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE CLIMBED TO T5.0 (90 KTS) AND RAW ADT ESTIMATES JUMPED TO T5.6. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED AND LOOK TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS-- VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS BELOW 15 KNOTS, SSTS ARE ABOVE 29C ALONG TRACK, AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RADIAL OUTFLOW OVER A RELATIVELY SMALL AND TIGHTLY WRAPPED SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS COCOONED FROM THE SHEAR ZONE ON THE POLEWARD SIDE, WHILE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS SHOW THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM IS WELL SATURATED WITH DEEP MOISTURE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, NOT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, HAS BEEN THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE ON INTENSITY ON THIS STORM. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST IS PROVIDING THE STEERING FORCE AND HAS NUDGED THE LLCC SLIGHTLY EQUATORWARD, WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT AND PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK- -THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE DRIVING THE SYSTEM WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS, WHEN A DEEPENING SHORT WAVE TROOUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WEAKENS THE RIDGE. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL LOSE STEERING INFLUENCE FROM THE RIDGE AND BEGIN A SLOW, GRACEFUL BEND INTO THE MID-LATITUDES, PEAKING IN INTENSITY NEAR TAU 48. ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE SPREADS AS TC 24S TURNS POLEWARD, IT STILL REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z AND 102100Z.// NNNN