WTXS32 PGTW 090900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WARNING NR 011// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 090600Z --- NEAR 18.4S 79.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S 79.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 18.0S 78.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 17.7S 76.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 17.5S 75.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 17.6S 74.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 18.7S 72.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 20.2S 71.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 21.5S 72.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 090900Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 79.1E. 09MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (HABANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1261 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 24S HAS ACCELERATED WESTWARD OVER WARMER WATER (28-29C) AND HAS BEGUN TO REINTENSIFY AFTER A WEAKENING PHASE ASSOCIATED WITH ITS SLOW FORWARD MOTION AND OCEANIC COOLING. THE REINTENSIFICATION IS EVIDENT IN THE ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY, WHICH SHOWS A COMPACT CORE SURROUNDING A 12 NM EYE. CONSEQUENTLY PGTW/FMEE DVORAK DATA-T ESTIMATES INCREASED TO T4.5 (77 KNOTS) WITH A 090600Z ADT ESTIMATE OF 4.4 (75 KNOTS). THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS INCREASED TO 70 KNOTS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED INTENSITY ESTIMATES AS WELL AS A 090411Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 65 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND ROBUST, IMPROVED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TC 24S IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 UNTIL THE STR WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHWESTWARD TURN THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, TC HABANA WILL SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY AND DRIFT SOUTHWARD DUE TO COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES, NAMELY THE STR TO THE EAST AND A BUILDING STR TO THE WEST. AN ADDITIONAL IMPEDIMENT THAT WILL LIMIT POLEWARD TRACK MOTION IS A BUILDING LOW-LEVEL HIGH TO THE SOUTH. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A 185 NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 120. OVERALL, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE SOUTHWARD TURN. THERE IS ALSO UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST WITH HIGH POTENTIAL FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 48 HOURS AS INDICATED BY HWRF, COAMPS-TC AND THE COAMPS-TC ENSEMBLE. ADDITIONALLY, THE MOST RECENT EIR IMAGERY YIELDS AN UNOFFICIAL DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) AS THE SMALL EYE EMERGES. THIS DATA WAS INCORPORATED INTO THE INTENSITY FORECAST THROUGH TAU 48, WHICH REFLECTS A SHARPER INCREASE TO THE PEAK INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS BY TAU 48. OVERALL, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH TAU 72 WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING AFTER TAU 72 AS MID-LEVEL VWS INCREASES TO MODERATE LEVELS AND SST VALUES COOL SLIGHTLY TO 27C. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z AND 100900Z.// NNNN