WTXS32 PGTW 082100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WARNING NR 010// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 081800Z --- NEAR 18.7S 80.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S 80.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 18.6S 79.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 18.3S 78.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 18.1S 77.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 18.0S 75.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 18.4S 73.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 19.7S 72.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 21.2S 72.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 082100Z POSITION NEAR 18.7S 80.5E. 08MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 848 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE INNER CORE HAS DEGRADED DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS, WITH A SHRINKING CIRRUS CANOPY AND NO EYE EVIDENT IN THE LATEST SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS FROM 081319Z. THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND IS LIKELY PRIMARILY DUE TO OCEANIC COOLING BENEATH THE CIRCULATION AS A RESULT OF ITS SLOW FORWARD MOTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A SATELLITE FIX FROM METEOSAT-8 WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KT IS ASSESSED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.0 FROM PGTW AND FMEE, AN OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.4, AND A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 69 KT. THE CYCLONE IS NOW BEGINNING ITS TURN TOWARD THE WEST AS A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BUILDS IN TO THE SOUTH. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS. AFTER THIS TIME, A MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR IS EXPECTED TO ERODE THE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE AND RESULT IN A SLOW POLEWARD TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH. THE TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 72 HOURS, IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN, WHICH NOW DEPICTS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER STR SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE TRACK AT 96-120 HOURS IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER, CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK STEERING INFLUENCES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS TRACK BRINGS 24S OVER A WARM OCEANIC EDDY TO THE WEST WITH A SLIGHTLY ACCELERATED SPEED DURING THE FIRST 72 HOURS, WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH LOW VERTICAL SHEAR, SHOULD RESULT IN REINTENSIFICATION. GIVEN THE CURRENTLY COMPACT VORTEX STRUCTURE, THIS INTENSIFICATION COULD BE SWIFT, AND THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 115 KT BY 72 HOURS, WHICH IS ABOVE THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH HWRF AND COAMPS-TC. AFTER 96 HOURS, THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO IMPART INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR, AND THE SOUTHWARD TRACK AT THAT TIME WILL BEGIN TAKING THE CYCLONE OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS, RESULTING IN GRADUAL WEAKENING. CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MODERATE, GIVEN THE SUSCEPTIBILITY OF COMPACT STORMS TO QUICK INTENSITY CHANGES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z AND 092100Z.// NNNN