WTXS31 PGTW 072100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (IMAN) WARNING NR 001// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (IMAN) WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 071800Z --- NEAR 24.4S 58.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 19 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 24.4S 58.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 25.7S 60.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 27.3S 61.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 29.1S 63.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 072100Z POSITION NEAR 24.7S 58.5E. 07MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (IMAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 278 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON A 071724Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS. TC 25S HAS CONSOLIDATED AND INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS WHILE TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE NORTHEAST AND AN APPROACHING, DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS THE APPROACHING TROUGH OVERTAKES THE SYSTEM. WHILE POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS STRONG AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AT AROUND 27C, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS VERY HIGH (GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS). THE CONTINUED IMPACT OF STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND PASSAGE OVER COOL WATER ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH NO OFFSETTING BAROCLINIC SUPPORT FROM INTERACTION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT REGARDING THE FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z AND 082100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. 2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 062230).// NNNN