WTXS32 PGTW 072100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WARNING NR 008 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 071800Z --- NEAR 17.4S 80.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S 80.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 18.1S 80.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 18.6S 79.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 18.8S 78.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 18.6S 77.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 18.4S 74.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 19.1S 72.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 20.5S 70.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 072100Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 80.4E. 07MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 772 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS SITUATED NEAR A LOW-LEVEL CENTER FEATURE EVIDENT IN A 071637Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS. THE INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH AN AVERAGE OF RECENT SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND AUTOMATED SATELLITE INTENSITY CONSENSUS VALUES. TC 24S HAS WEAKENED STEADILY OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS, AND TEMPORARILY LOST ITS EYE, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SHORT-TERM INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLING OCEAN WATER BENEATH THE SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM. TC 24S IS TURNING POLEWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SHIFTING STEERING PATTERN, WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGING BUILDING TO THE EAST. VERTICAL WIND HAS EASED A BIT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS (10- 15 KTS), SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE MODERATELY FAVORABLE (26-28C) AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE-DERIVED, UPPER- LEVEL WIND VECTOR DATA. TC 24S IS EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING BUILDS TO THE SOUTH AND TAKES OVER AS THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE FOLLOWING THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE, TURNING POLEWARD BY TAU 120. FURTHER NEAR-TERM WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER, ROBUST OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DRIVE A DISTINCT INTENSIFICATION TREND WITH POSSIBLE RAPID INTENSIFICATION AFTER TAU 36. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAVGEM TRACK, WHICH LIES SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE ENVELOPE, AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN, WHICH LIES SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE CURRENT JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z AND 082100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (IMAN) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN