ABIO10 PGTW 071800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/071800Z-081800ZMAR2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070753ZMAR2021//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/062221ZMAR2021//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 07MAR21 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 16.9S 79.1E, APPROXIMATELY 704 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF 
DIEGO GARCIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 
115 KNOTS GUSTING TO 140 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 070900) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 21.9S 53.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.8S 56.4E, APPROXIMATELY 183 
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF LES GALETS, LA REUNION. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 071513Z SSMIS 91GHZ SATELLITE 
IMAGE DEPICT FLARING CONVECTION, AND A 071609Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS 
SHOWS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH A 
WIDENING WIND FIELD. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS 91S IS IN A 
PARTIALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND 
WARM (27-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), OFFSET BY HIGH (20-
30KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL 
AGREEMENT THAT 91S WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE INTENSIFYING 
SLIGHTLY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF B (WTXS21 PGTW  
062230) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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