ABIO10 PGTW 062230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/062230Z-071800ZMAR2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/061951ZMAR2021//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060151ZMAR2021//
REF/C/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/061951ZMAR2021//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS. REF C IS A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 06MAR21 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 16.6S 78.9E, APPROXIMATELY 682 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF 
DIEGO GARCIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 
120 KNOTS GUSTING TO 145 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 062100) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AT 06MAR21 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 25.8S 95.9E, APPROXIMATELY 1018 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF 
LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE 
ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS31 PGTW 
060300) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 21.9S 53E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.5S 53.9E, APPROXIMATELY 142 NM 
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LES GALETS, LA REUNION. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 062025Z GMI 89GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE 
DEPICT QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING AND FLARING CONVECTION. A 061839Z METOP-
C ASCAT PASS SHOWS A MUCH TIGHTER LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH 
RAPIDLY INCREASING WIND SPEEDS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS 91S IS 
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DUAL CHANNEL UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, 
MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (28-29C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT 
THAT 91S WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST WHILE CONTINUING TO CONSOLIDATE 
AND INTENSIFY.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 
TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF C 
(WTXS21 PGTW 062230) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO 
HIGH. //
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