ABIO10 PGTW 061800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/061800Z-071800ZMAR2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060751ZMAR2021//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060151ZMAR2021//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 06MAR21 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 16.2S 78.0E, APPROXIMATELY 634 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF 
DIEGO GARCIA, AND HAD TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER 
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED 
AT 125 KNOTS GUSTING TO 150 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 060900) 
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AT 06MAR21 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 25.8S 95.9E, APPROXIMATELY 1018 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF 
LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE 
ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS31 PGTW 
060300) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 18.1S 44.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.9S 53E, APPROXIMATELY 142 NM 
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DES GALETS, LA REUNION. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 061528Z SSMIS 91GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE 
DEPICT DISORGANIZED AND FLARING CONVECTION WITH AN ELONGATED LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS 91S IS IN A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DUAL CHANNEL UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, 
MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (28-29C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT 
THAT 91S WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST WHILE UNDERGOING MARGINAL 
CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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