WTXS31 PGTW 060300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN) WARNING NR 017// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN) WARNING NR 017 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 060000Z --- NEAR 25.8S 95.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.8S 95.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 26.7S 96.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 27.5S 96.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 060300Z POSITION NEAR 26.0S 96.0E. 06MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1018 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL (MSI) SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TC 22S IS BECOMING SUBTROPICAL, WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DUE TO SIGNIFICANT (30-40 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ERODING MSI LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS, WHICH IS HIGHER THAN AGENCY FIXES BASED ON EARLIER ASCAT DATA INDICATING GALES PERSISTING AROUND THE REMNANT LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST. TC 22S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION. MARIAN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BELOW 35 KNOTS IN 24 HOURS, HOWEVER, GIVEN THE CURRENT ASSESSMENT OF PHASE STATE AND PRESENCE OF GALE WINDS, THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY WAS CHANGED TO SUBTROPICAL TRANISITION. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOONWRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FORSIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000ZIS 20 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. // NNNN